A risk management perspective also suggests that a yes vote is the current best choice for Ireland.
With so much uncertainty and conflicting information, perhaps the only rational way to evaluate which way to vote in the referendum on the Fiscal Treaty is to look at it from a strategic/risk management perspective based on likely developments in the euro zone over the next few years. Considering the impact on Ireland of those possible and foreseeable alternatives should clarify what a rational voter should do. This is necessary as it is most likely that Ireland will be voting in advance of any of the development set out below.